The President of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky, has said that the 2017 general grain harvest in Russia will be high but will not reach the record level of the previous year.
His premise being that the condition of winter crops after the end of winter is a determining factor and in 2015-16 almost 100% survived while traditionally farmers lose 10-15% so it is hardly possible to rely on the same results this year.
I would agree with Mr Zlochevsky’s observation and add to it how rain during the rest of the season allowed that record amount of crop that survived the winter to go on and yield so well at harvest.
A perfect storm of weather conditions which is unlikely to be repeated this year.
Crops were in very good condition going into the winter (see our crop condition report) and despite some recent reservations about Krasnodar, right now they are all pretty much tucked up safely under an insulating blanket of snow.
Assuming nothing untoward happens between now and the end of winter (although there is still a lot of winter to get through so it could) then there should be a good foundation of winter cereals at the start of the season.
However I just don’t see that the rest of the season will be as conducive to crop growth as it was last year.
One look at the precipitation charts shows how unusual last year was and we are overdue a dry year, 2017 could be it.
We’ll be kicking off the first crop tour of the season in March to take an independent assessment of crop condition post winter with thoughts on yield potential, subscription details will be made available in the next few weeks.